Precision Targeting Bioweapons Facilities in a Post-CCP Regime Collapse Scenario

Key Assets and Locations, Mission Options, and Strategic Execution Plan

Under the radar of multiple responsible bodies in the West, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has architected the world’s most aggressive dual-use pathogen research ecosystem that spans across nominally civilian and overt military facilities in China. China’s Civil-Military Fusion Law guarantees that any pathogen research activities that occur within China, including work carried out with international involvement, can be absorbed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at any time. Unlike NATO and the American Alliance structure (including in the Indo-Pacific), many senior PLA officers and CCP strategists do not view biological weapons as being classified as unconventional platforms. Rather, there is increasing evidence that biological weapons are viewed as being a core component of the PLA’s standard order of battle.

The CCP has executed decades of massive investment in domestic Biosafety Level 3 and 4 (BSL3/4) laboratory capacity combined with a clandestine effort to absorb international, and specifically Western, expertise and technical knowhow in high-risk Gain-of-Function (GoF) techniques. This has resulted in a pathogen-diversified, geographically distributed, and increasingly offensively-oriented CCP capability. The PLA is unable to achieve strategic overmatch in conventional military domains against the American Alliance Structure (let alone NATO). However, bioweapons likely represent one defense domain where the CCP may assess that Beijing has distinct asymmetric advantages that can leveraged to achieve strategic effects against enemies.

It is essential that the United States has a directly executable set of options to target the full spectrum of China’s dual-use pathogen research infrastructure in the event of a CCP regime collapse. The CCP is already beginning to internationalize its networks, especially in Pakistan. CCP-driven proliferation of bioweapons to other hostile states, criminal syndicates, and other threat groups has the ability to fundamentally alter global security in an irreversible manner. Precision targeting is necessary to prevent any such scenario. This report will provide a strategic-level overview of the CCP’s key bioweapons research institutes and the specific type of high-risk pathogen research that they are conducting. Based on this, three precision targeting mission options are presented followed by a fundamental execution plan for these missions. This report then concludes with a net assessment that argues for the outright destruction, not restructuring, of these bioweapons facilities.

BSL4 is the highest level of biosafety precautions and facilities are specifically designed for work with pathogens that could easily be transmitted within the laboratory and cause severe to fatal disease in humans for which there are no available vaccines or treatments. BSL3 is appropriate for work involving microbes which can cause serious and potentially lethal disease via the inhalation route. Many of the protocols and other control measures in BSL4 and BSL3 labs are similar. For a more detailed technical overview, see United States Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories – fifth Edition, Atlanta, December 2009.

Gain-of-Function (GoF) experiments are a controversial domain within biomedical science, defense and security, and other related fields. They are separate and distinct from other scientific methods and approaches. GoF experiments are designed to enable pathogens to develop new properties (e.g., increased transmissibility, increased lethality and drug resistance) for them to generate better information on how viruses could leap from one species to another. This can enable rapid early detection, containment and local/regional/international pandemic prevention. However, this also makes viruses more dangerous than their natural form.